Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250615 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    106.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  23.3  22.9  26.6  26.1  27.2  22.4  22.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  30.0  33.0  36.0  28.0  26.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  69.3  61.5  55.8  53.0  51.7  45.5  45.5  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  -6.0 -18.0 -21.0  -6.0 -54.0 -13.0 -13.0  N  U  U VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  57.0  52.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -7.0  -6.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        0.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.48

 EP042025 250615 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    106.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.