Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250615 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  21.8  25.4  26.7  25.5  24.3  24.1  24.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  31.0  34.0  36.0  27.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.3  66.5  66.5  60.8  68.0  62.2  56.7  56.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -14.0 -11.0 -31.0  -7.0 -27.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U VU  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  56.0  53.0  45.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0 -10.0  -5.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.0%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.12

 EP042025 250615 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.