Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042025 250615 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.80 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.0 23.8 24.2 23.9 28.3 22.8 22.8 22.8 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 33.0 36.0 34.0 26.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.3 76.5 70.8 68.0 66.7 60.5 60.5 60.5 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -23.0 -35.0 -40.0 -7.0 -53.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 VU VU VU U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 65.0 62.0 58.0 52.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -10.0 -8.0 -7.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 F F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.00 EP042025 250615 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.