Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250616 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  19.4  15.0  10.6   9.1  10.4  14.5  19.7  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   9.0  13.0  20.0  25.0  26.0  30.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  52.0  51.0  54.0  76.0 129.0 161.0 192.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  87.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       18.6%       11.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        8.1%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        8.1%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        8.1%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%       30.5%       19.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%       13.5%        8.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%       23.9%       17.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%       16.1%       10.1%
 65kt / 72h       21.1%       45.4%       33.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 EP052025 250616 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  19.4  15.0  10.6   9.1  10.4  14.5  19.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  87.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%