Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250617 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     93.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  11.1   8.3   7.6   9.7  11.8  22.6  12.9  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  22.0  25.0  26.0  28.0  34.0  25.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  24.0  46.0  44.0  92.0 131.0 153.0  92.0  N  U  N  N  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  86.0  85.0  83.0  86.0  85.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0 -10.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        5.4%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.0%       43.7%       29.4%
 30kt / 24h        9.2%       31.5%       20.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       31.5%       18.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%       31.5%       17.1%
 45kt / 36h       21.4%       56.1%       38.8%
 55kt / 36h       13.8%       38.2%       26.0%
 55kt / 48h       25.6%       49.6%       37.6%
 70kt / 48h       12.8%       38.0%       25.4%
 65kt / 72h       28.7%       60.1%       44.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 EP052025 250617 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     93.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  11.1   8.3   7.6   9.7  11.8  22.6  12.9  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  86.0  85.0  83.0  86.0  85.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0 -10.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%