Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250617 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.3   8.6   8.4  10.6  15.4  19.8  13.2  15.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  25.0  25.0  26.0  33.0  26.0  20.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  23.0  36.0  52.0 158.0 181.0 119.0  40.0  U  U  N  N VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  85.0  86.0  84.0  83.0  85.0  81.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0 -12.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.3%       19.3%       14.8%
 25kt / 24h       35.3%       68.5%       51.9%
 30kt / 24h       22.6%       63.5%       43.1%
 35kt / 24h       17.5%       63.5%       40.5%
 40kt / 24h       10.8%       63.5%       37.2%
 45kt / 36h       34.0%       75.3%       54.7%
 55kt / 36h       23.2%       63.7%       43.5%
 55kt / 48h       27.4%       60.4%       43.9%
 70kt / 48h       13.9%       52.0%       32.9%
 65kt / 72h       18.3%       62.2%       40.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 EP052025 250617 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.3   8.6   8.4  10.6  15.4  19.8  13.2  15.4  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  85.0  86.0  84.0  83.0  85.0  81.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0 -12.0  -5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%