Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250617 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60     94.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.9   8.1  10.7  13.0  20.1  18.3  13.3  10.9  F VF  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  26.0  30.0  32.0  21.0  14.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  43.0  83.0 108.0 100.0 150.0  61.0  49.0  U  N  N  F  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  83.0  82.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -9.0  -9.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.5%       25.8%       19.7%
 25kt / 24h       47.1%       74.4%       60.7%
 30kt / 24h       31.0%       71.8%       51.4%
 35kt / 24h       26.9%       71.8%       49.4%
 40kt / 24h       13.1%       71.8%       42.5%
 45kt / 36h       38.6%       75.8%       57.2%
 55kt / 36h       24.9%       63.6%       44.2%
 55kt / 48h       26.4%       59.9%       43.1%
 70kt / 48h       12.6%       48.3%       30.5%
 65kt / 72h       15.4%       59.3%       37.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 EP052025 250617 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60     94.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.9   8.1  10.7  13.0  20.1  18.3  13.3  10.9  U VU  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  83.0  82.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -9.0  -9.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%