Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250618 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.8  10.7  11.8  12.3  22.0  13.5  14.7  14.7 VF  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  29.0  33.0  26.0  18.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0 113.0 116.0 133.0 165.0 135.0  50.0  50.0  N  F  F VF VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0 -14.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  F VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%       12.4%        9.8%
 25kt / 24h       34.4%       60.3%       47.3%
 30kt / 24h       21.2%       54.0%       37.6%
 35kt / 24h       14.1%       54.0%       34.0%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%       54.0%       30.7%
 45kt / 36h       31.3%       53.1%       42.2%
 55kt / 36h       16.5%       32.2%       24.4%
 55kt / 48h       26.5%       44.4%       35.5%
 70kt / 48h       12.2%       27.6%       19.9%
 65kt / 72h       16.7%       42.2%       29.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 EP052025 250618 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.8  10.7  11.8  12.3  22.0  13.5  14.7  14.7 VU  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  85.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0 -14.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%