Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250618 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10     95.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.6   7.8  11.0  15.7  18.1  12.9  12.3  12.3 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  28.0  32.0  34.0  26.0  17.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0 125.0 161.0 135.0 105.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  F  F VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  81.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0  -9.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.8%       41.1%       36.9%
 25kt / 24h       71.3%       87.6%       79.4%
 30kt / 24h       57.5%       87.6%       72.5%
 35kt / 24h       48.2%       87.6%       67.9%
 40kt / 24h       48.2%       87.6%       67.9%
 45kt / 36h       58.7%       79.6%       69.1%
 55kt / 36h       33.4%       67.0%       50.2%
 55kt / 48h       35.7%       70.5%       53.1%
 70kt / 48h       19.0%       54.1%       36.6%
 65kt / 72h       17.2%       56.3%       36.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 EP052025 250618 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10     95.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.6   7.8  11.0  15.7  18.1  12.9  12.3  12.3 VU VU  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  81.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0  -9.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%