Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250618 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     95.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.6   9.0  12.5  18.4  10.9  12.8  12.8  12.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  32.0  33.0  28.0  19.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   129.0 126.0 121.0 122.0  91.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0 -11.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       83.1%       75.2%       79.1%
 25kt / 24h       95.0%       96.7%       95.8%
 30kt / 24h       95.0%       96.7%       95.8%
 35kt / 24h       95.0%       96.7%       95.8%
 40kt / 24h       95.0%       96.7%       95.8%
 45kt / 36h       84.2%       88.5%       86.3%
 55kt / 36h       60.8%       82.8%       71.8%
 55kt / 48h       35.2%       80.1%       57.7%
 70kt / 48h       18.6%       64.0%       41.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.7%       53.7%       31.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 EP052025 250618 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     95.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.6   9.0  12.5  18.4  10.9  12.8  12.8  12.8  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  84.0  85.0  84.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0 -11.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%