Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250618 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     96.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  15.2  17.3  15.6  16.7  16.7  16.7  16.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  32.0  25.0  21.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   141.0 106.0 119.0  90.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -8.0  -4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       76.3%       56.5%       66.4%
 25kt / 24h       80.0%       85.6%       82.8%
 30kt / 24h       80.0%       85.6%       82.8%
 35kt / 24h       80.0%       85.6%       82.8%
 40kt / 24h       80.0%       85.6%       82.8%
 45kt / 36h       82.0%       66.7%       74.3%
 55kt / 36h       34.1%       52.0%       43.1%
 55kt / 48h       20.1%       33.1%       26.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 EP052025 250618 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     96.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.1  15.2  17.3  15.6  16.7  16.7  16.7  16.7  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -8.0  -4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%