Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250619 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     97.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.9  14.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  20.0  17.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  79.0  83.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.8%       15.7%       32.3%
 25kt / 24h       29.2%       26.0%       27.6%
 30kt / 24h       23.9%       22.4%       23.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 EP052025 250619 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50     97.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.9  14.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%