Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     98.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  12.9  13.6  11.2  11.2  11.2  11.2  11.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  19.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  90.0  57.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  84.0  86.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        6.6%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        5.0%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h       14.0%        2.0%        8.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        2.2%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 EP052025 250619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     98.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  12.9  13.6  11.2  11.2  11.2  11.2  11.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  84.0  86.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%