Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062025 250630 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  17.6  14.9  16.6  16.8  23.1  25.0  25.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  44.0  48.0  53.0  41.0  26.0  27.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 106.5  91.2  73.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0 114.0  92.0 100.0  98.0 120.0 109.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  81.0  78.0  75.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        8.1%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h       33.1%       56.6%       44.8%
 30kt / 24h       17.6%       41.9%       29.7%
 35kt / 24h       11.4%       41.9%       26.6%
 40kt / 24h       11.4%       41.9%       26.6%
 45kt / 36h       32.8%       58.9%       45.9%
 55kt / 36h       18.1%       36.4%       27.3%
 55kt / 48h       34.6%       36.5%       35.5%
 70kt / 48h       17.9%       25.6%       21.8%
 65kt / 72h       21.4%       21.8%       21.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 EP062025 250630 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  17.6  14.9  16.6  16.8  23.1  25.0  25.6  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  83.0  85.0  81.0  78.0  75.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%