Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062025 250630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    103.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  20.5  16.6  15.5  23.6  23.7  25.0  20.9  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  54.0  50.0  39.0  26.0  29.0  31.0  19.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6  91.5  76.2  50.4  35.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 113.0  93.0  83.0  73.0  78.0  63.0  47.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  83.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  66.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.5%       31.6%       36.5%
 25kt / 24h       65.5%       78.2%       71.9%
 30kt / 24h       53.5%       76.7%       65.1%
 35kt / 24h       45.3%       76.7%       61.0%
 40kt / 24h       40.6%       76.7%       58.6%
 45kt / 36h       43.5%       66.1%       54.8%
 55kt / 36h       27.5%       48.4%       37.9%
 55kt / 48h       26.6%       24.7%       25.6%
 70kt / 48h       12.3%       21.3%       16.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        9.5%        6.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 EP062025 250630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    103.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  20.5  16.6  15.5  23.6  23.7  25.0  20.9  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  83.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  66.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%