Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062025 250701 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    103.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  16.1  13.1  17.2  18.6  22.5  24.5  21.5  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  49.0  39.0  32.0  27.0  31.0  30.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0  99.6  86.5  71.2  61.1  45.4  31.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  85.0  68.0  70.0  81.0  82.0  60.0  23.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  80.0  77.0  74.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       50.8%       39.7%       45.3%
 25kt / 24h       66.4%       77.5%       72.0%
 30kt / 24h       57.1%       77.3%       67.2%
 35kt / 24h       50.9%       77.3%       64.1%
 40kt / 24h       40.0%       77.3%       58.6%
 45kt / 36h       41.5%       64.2%       52.9%
 55kt / 36h       27.3%       47.5%       37.4%
 55kt / 48h       32.8%       21.0%       26.9%
 70kt / 48h       17.3%       19.9%       18.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 EP062025 250701 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    103.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  16.1  13.1  17.2  18.6  22.5  24.5  21.5  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  80.0  77.0  74.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%