Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062025 250701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    105.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.2  14.7  15.8  19.2  21.0  25.0  21.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  34.0  28.0  28.0  31.0  30.0  16.0   7.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.6  66.5  66.5  58.5  41.1  25.4  11.7  -1.6  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  74.0  75.0  99.0  56.0  22.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  75.0  75.0  67.0  61.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.8%       53.3%       62.6%
 25kt / 24h       67.2%       76.8%       72.0%
 30kt / 24h       62.7%       76.8%       69.8%
 35kt / 24h       61.6%       76.8%       69.2%
 40kt / 24h       53.0%       75.1%       64.1%
 45kt / 36h       45.0%       49.7%       47.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 EP062025 250701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    105.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.2  14.7  15.8  19.2  21.0  25.0  21.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  75.0  75.0  67.0  61.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%