Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072025 250731 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 114.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 71.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.1 18.6 13.2 12.2 13.4 13.2 22.8 24.2 F N F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 16.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 127.0 124.6 124.6 115.7 101.6 87.7 67.9 59.8 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 84.0 113.0 157.0 139.0 96.0 109.0 20.0 31.0 N F VF VF F F U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 76.0 74.0 69.0 68.0 68.0 64.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -18.0 -11.0 -9.0 0.0 -4.0 1.0 -3.0 VF VF F F N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.6% 6.3% 4.5% 25kt / 24h 24.1% 52.6% 38.3% 30kt / 24h 10.0% 38.3% 24.1% 35kt / 24h 4.5% 38.3% 21.4% 40kt / 24h 3.4% 35.2% 19.3% 45kt / 36h 18.1% 60.3% 39.2% 55kt / 36h 8.5% 41.0% 24.7% 55kt / 48h 32.5% 16.7% 24.6% 70kt / 48h 16.7% 31.6% 24.2% 65kt / 72h 4.4% 16.5% 10.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.18 EP072025 250731 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 114.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.1 18.6 13.2 12.2 13.4 13.2 22.8 24.2 N N U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 77.0 76.0 74.0 69.0 68.0 68.0 64.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -18.0 -11.0 -9.0 0.0 -4.0 1.0 -3.0 VU VU U U N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%