Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072025 250731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  14.9  14.1  14.2  13.0  20.1  23.8  25.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  14.0  14.0   8.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 114.6 105.7  95.5  79.3  67.2  49.8  44.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   121.0 139.0  83.0  84.0 102.0  59.0  70.0  18.0  F VF  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  58.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -9.0 -12.0 -10.0  -6.0  -6.0   3.0  -5.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.1%       17.8%       17.4%
 25kt / 24h       41.0%       60.7%       50.8%
 30kt / 24h       24.4%       50.9%       37.6%
 35kt / 24h       17.9%       50.9%       34.4%
 40kt / 24h       15.8%       50.9%       33.3%
 45kt / 36h       27.9%       62.9%       45.4%
 55kt / 36h       17.8%       46.2%       32.0%
 55kt / 48h       33.7%       18.3%       26.0%
 70kt / 48h       18.3%       26.1%       22.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        8.9%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 EP072025 250731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  14.9  14.1  14.2  13.0  20.1  23.8  25.1  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  58.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -9.0 -12.0 -10.0  -6.0  -6.0   3.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%