Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072025 250731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  14.1  16.4  15.1  12.4  20.1  21.0  21.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  14.0  15.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 105.7 103.6  91.6  77.7  57.9  49.8  44.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   133.0 133.0  84.0  97.0  73.0  80.0  52.0   6.0 VF VF  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  54.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -12.0 -15.0 -12.0  -8.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.1%       10.1%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h       24.5%       42.8%       33.7%
 30kt / 24h       14.2%       29.4%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.8%       29.4%       18.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.3%       29.4%       18.4%
 45kt / 36h       16.4%       43.7%       30.0%
 55kt / 36h        9.9%       25.6%       17.7%
 55kt / 48h       26.3%       12.9%       19.6%
 70kt / 48h       12.9%       11.7%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        5.0%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 EP072025 250731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  14.1  16.4  15.1  12.4  20.1  21.0  21.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  54.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -12.0 -15.0 -12.0  -8.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%