Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072025 250801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  16.6  16.1  11.5  17.3  20.9  23.1  22.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  14.0   8.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.7  90.5  86.6  76.0  63.6  44.8  39.7  38.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  83.0  70.0  93.0  29.0  64.0   5.0   2.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  57.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -13.0 -12.0 -11.0  -7.0   4.0  -5.0  -4.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        5.8%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.3%       23.0%       17.6%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       13.5%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       13.2%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       12.5%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       17.9%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        7.6%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h       17.1%        1.7%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 EP072025 250801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.