Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072025 250801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.8  11.8  13.3  20.1  20.5  23.3  25.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0   7.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.5  81.6  71.0  60.0  47.9  34.7  31.8  32.8  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  89.0  77.0  56.0  40.0  31.0  -3.0 -18.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  58.0  49.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -14.0  -9.0 -10.0  -2.0   3.0  -2.0  -5.0 VF VF  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        6.8%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.5%       19.0%       15.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%       11.6%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%       11.1%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%       10.0%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       14.4%        9.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        6.1%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.90

 EP072025 250801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.