Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072025 250801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    120.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  10.3  12.3  18.6  19.7  23.6  22.6  26.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   8.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.6  71.0  60.0  58.6  39.8  34.7  32.8  33.7  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  84.0  67.0  51.0  74.0   3.0 -16.0 -15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  58.0  51.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0   8.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0 VF  F  F  F  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        6.1%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.2%       14.2%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        9.4%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        8.7%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        6.3%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       11.6%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        4.9%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.58

 EP072025 250801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    120.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.