Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072025 250801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  11.9  16.4  19.5  22.5  25.1  25.6  29.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.0  55.0  53.6  44.2  34.8  26.8  26.8  30.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  90.0  72.0  66.0  80.0   8.0   3.0 -18.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  52.0  46.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0  -3.0   3.0   5.0  -4.0  -6.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.0%        4.6%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%        8.4%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        5.4%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        4.8%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        3.3%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.02

 EP072025 250801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.