Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072025 250802 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 124.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.4 15.3 19.4 22.3 25.0 23.8 28.8 30.8 F F N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.3 48.6 37.9 29.8 24.7 22.8 23.7 26.7 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 84.0 84.0 78.0 81.0 40.0 -6.0 13.0 -19.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 70.0 68.0 66.0 57.0 49.0 45.0 39.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 0.0 5.0 9.0 2.0 -4.0 -3.0 1.0 F N N U N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.1% 7.1% 10.1% 25kt / 24h 6.1% 7.8% 6.9% 30kt / 24h 4.3% 5.2% 4.7% 35kt / 24h 2.9% 4.6% 3.8% 40kt / 24h 1.9% 3.2% 2.5% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.54 EP072025 250802 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 124.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.