Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072025 250802 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 126.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 33.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 20.0 21.5 21.5 25.3 26.6 31.8 31.4 F N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 48.6 37.9 29.8 29.8 25.7 24.7 25.7 29.8 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 81.0 74.0 69.0 86.0 -1.0 1.0 4.0 -31.0 N N N F U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 68.0 65.0 61.0 52.0 44.0 38.0 34.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 6.0 10.0 4.0 -3.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0 N N U N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.6% 1.7% 2.7% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 1.9% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.96 EP072025 250802 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 126.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.