Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072025 250803 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.80 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.3 27.6 30.8 24.5 30.3 29.2 38.8 38.5 N N U N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.9 35.7 35.7 32.8 33.7 38.8 42.0 46.7 U U U VU VU U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 76.0 29.0 19.0 -9.0 -4.0 -11.0 3.0 7.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 58.0 56.0 51.0 45.0 44.0 42.0 39.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 -1.0 -6.0 -2.0 -3.0 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 U N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.92 EP072025 250803 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.