Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072025 250803 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 132.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.7 30.7 24.5 27.1 34.9 36.8 39.7 41.9 N U N N U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.7 40.7 38.7 39.7 44.8 47.0 51.7 55.4 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 34.0 2.0 -15.0 -5.0 12.0 -12.0 0.0 -2.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 55.0 52.0 49.0 44.0 43.0 39.0 38.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -6.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0.0 -4.0 0.0 N F N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.84 EP072025 250803 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 132.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.