Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072025 250803 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 134.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.30 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.2 27.5 29.0 35.8 36.6 41.0 38.2 48.1 U N N U U VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 46.7 44.7 46.7 47.7 49.8 54.3 57.9 63.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 0.0 -12.0 16.0 22.0 -6.0 7.0 -36.0 U U U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 48.0 46.0 41.0 41.0 39.0 40.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -2.0 -1.0 -4.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 F N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.86 EP072025 250803 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 134.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.