Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082025 250806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  18.1  16.2  15.0  13.9  17.8  21.7  20.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  59.2  57.9  59.2  57.9  53.2  53.2  54.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  33.0   8.0 -16.0 -20.0  15.0 -13.0   0.0  U  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  48.0  46.0  47.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.30

 EP082025 250806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.