Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082025 250807 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 133.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.3 23.6 23.3 19.0 14.8 F F F F N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 62.9 62.9 62.9 58.2 62.9 61.7 64.2 66.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -4.0 -26.0 -4.0 -6.0 14.0 5.0 9.0 U U VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 52.0 49.0 47.0 45.0 45.0 44.0 42.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 5.0 2.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.84 EP082025 250807 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 133.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.