Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082025 250808 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 139.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 51.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 22.7 21.5 19.8 16.8 18.0 14.5 7.6 N N N N F F F VF Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 64.3 67.9 65.5 69.2 67.9 71.7 71.7 73.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 7.0 23.0 3.0 27.0 -25.0 32.0 -2.0 U U U U U VU N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 42.0 43.0 42.0 42.0 40.0 41.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 7.6% 0.0% 3.8% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.74 EP082025 250808 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 139.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.