Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082025 250809 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.0 17.7 20.3 22.3 21.2 15.5 14.8 16.8 N F N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.2 72.9 74.2 74.2 78.0 79.4 78.0 75.4 U U U U N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 9.0 52.0 17.0 -10.0 2.0 38.0 15.0 U U N U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 42.0 42.0 44.0 50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 0.0 5.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 5.1% 0.0% 2.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.92 EP082025 250809 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.