Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082025 250809 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 146.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.70 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.6 22.7 25.0 23.2 16.2 16.1 14.5 19.6 N N N N F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.2 74.2 74.2 75.4 76.7 78.0 76.7 69.3 U U U U U N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 12.0 0.0 -10.0 -15.0 38.0 0.0 -20.0 N U U U U N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 41.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 44.0 49.0 52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 6.0 9.0 8.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 N N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 10.6% 0.0% 5.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.00 EP082025 250809 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 146.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.