Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082025 250810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  14.7  13.1  15.0  10.4  18.5  25.2  41.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.4  63.0  61.7  60.4  60.4  54.3  47.7  39.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -30.0  16.0  77.0 -69.0   5.0 -22.0 -24.0  U VU  U  N VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  41.0  42.0  47.0  49.0  46.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   3.0   6.0   0.0   2.0 -19.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.16

 EP082025 250810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.