Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082025 250810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    151.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  13.4  14.8  15.3  17.7  26.0  37.1  50.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.0  41.7  40.4  40.4  37.9  30.9  24.7  19.1  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0  15.0  76.0  -3.0   8.0 -16.0 -47.0  -7.0 VU  U  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  40.0  42.0  44.0  46.0  49.0  47.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   6.0 -11.0  -5.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.6%        2.5%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        2.6%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        1.4%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        1.0%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.16

 EP082025 250810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    151.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.