Rapid Intensification Guidance EP082025 250813 06UTC Storm Located at : 36.00 165.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.60 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.9 45.7 47.5 38.7 23.0 16.6 13.4 13.4 VU VU VU U N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.8 39.7 32.8 26.8 17.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 -35.0 -31.0 -36.0 -11.0 -10.0 -5.0 -5.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 40.0 38.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 42.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -13.0 -13.0 3.0 -2.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 N VF VF N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.66 EP082025 250813 06UTC Storm Located at : 36.00 165.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.