Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092025 250806 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 98.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 24.9 24.5 21.2 24.6 15.5 19.3 19.8 N N N N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 27.0 29.0 9.0 6.0 U N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 101.6 81.5 75.8 F F F F F N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 110.0 99.0 79.0 99.0 102.0 55.0 34.0 25.0 F F N F F N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.0 80.0 77.0 72.0 72.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -13.0 -6.0 -9.0 -4.0 N N N N VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.4% 7.6% 6.0% 25kt / 24h 29.2% 53.6% 41.4% 30kt / 24h 13.6% 37.5% 25.6% 35kt / 24h 6.8% 37.5% 22.2% 40kt / 24h 5.1% 34.0% 19.6% 45kt / 36h 18.0% 61.1% 39.5% 55kt / 36h 8.0% 39.9% 24.0% 55kt / 48h 19.0% 32.7% 25.9% 70kt / 48h 7.4% 30.9% 19.1% 65kt / 72h 4.4% 27.1% 15.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.52 EP092025 250806 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 98.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.8 24.9 24.5 21.2 24.6 15.5 19.3 19.8 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.0 80.0 77.0 72.0 72.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -13.0 -6.0 -9.0 -4.0 N N N N VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%