Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    100.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  24.7  21.2  21.5  18.6  14.8  19.0  17.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  48.0  53.0  33.0  31.0  18.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 122.3  96.2  87.7  73.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0  95.0  70.0 122.0  59.0  51.0   3.0  12.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  83.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  75.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0  -6.0  -5.0  -7.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.7%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h       14.0%       30.1%       22.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       14.4%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       14.4%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       14.1%        7.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.9%       31.3%       20.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%       13.4%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       15.0%       14.6%       14.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%       11.3%        8.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%       13.0%        7.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 EP092025 250807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    100.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  24.7  21.2  21.5  18.6  14.8  19.0  17.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  83.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  75.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0  -6.0  -5.0  -7.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%