Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  21.8  21.4  22.4  16.0  15.1  17.6  17.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  51.0  31.0  29.0  27.0  11.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 101.6  92.7  83.0  70.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  49.0 106.0  92.0  32.0  30.0  23.0  38.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  72.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -3.0  -7.0 -11.0  -8.0  -6.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h       10.3%       27.5%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%       13.6%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%       13.5%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       11.7%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.2%       26.4%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%       11.0%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.0%        9.3%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        7.9%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        9.9%        6.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 EP092025 250807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  21.8  21.4  22.4  16.0  15.1  17.6  17.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  72.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -3.0  -7.0 -11.0  -8.0  -6.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%