Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.4  23.5  16.5  14.9  17.1  17.2  14.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  27.0  23.0  30.0  17.0   8.0   5.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1  89.4  76.5  72.2  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0 101.0  81.0  44.0  48.0  32.0  38.0   8.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        6.1%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       18.0%       40.2%       29.1%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%       26.3%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       26.3%       16.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       23.6%       12.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%       37.5%       23.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%       19.7%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       12.1%        4.4%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.4%       10.3%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        8.8%        4.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 EP092025 250807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.4  23.5  16.5  14.9  17.1  17.2  14.2  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%