Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    105.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  21.4  16.2  17.7  19.0  18.7  19.1  20.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  24.0  29.0  27.0  13.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 105.1  90.5  71.1  62.2  58.0  50.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  86.0  64.0  38.0  49.0  24.0 -15.0  -8.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  67.0  68.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -11.0 -10.0 -11.0  -7.0  -2.0  -7.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.6%       15.0%       16.3%
 25kt / 24h       31.6%       47.7%       39.6%
 30kt / 24h       22.7%       38.0%       30.3%
 35kt / 24h       19.6%       38.0%       28.8%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%       38.0%       23.9%
 45kt / 36h       15.1%       37.1%       26.1%
 55kt / 36h       10.2%       20.7%       15.4%
 55kt / 48h       15.4%        6.2%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.2%        8.6%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.7%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 EP092025 250807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    105.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  21.4  16.2  17.7  19.0  18.7  19.1  20.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  67.0  68.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -11.0 -10.0 -11.0  -7.0  -2.0  -7.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%