Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  16.7  16.8  16.1  20.0  17.4  16.3  18.6  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  28.0  26.0  16.0   9.0   5.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 107.3  92.4  81.2  68.0  62.2  55.4  39.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  40.0  49.0  82.0  16.0  -8.0  -8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -10.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.9%        6.3%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       11.3%       20.9%       16.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.2%       12.1%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       12.1%        8.9%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%       12.1%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       13.6%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%        5.1%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.5%        3.8%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        2.4%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 EP092025 250808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  16.7  16.8  16.1  20.0  17.4  16.3  18.6  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -10.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%