Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  16.1  14.9  15.6  21.6  21.7  19.3  20.1  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  25.0  16.0  12.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.3  92.4  81.2  72.7  62.2  49.3  43.8  36.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  45.0  76.0  90.0  17.0 -19.0 -18.0  22.0  N  N  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -11.0  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -2.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.5%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        9.4%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        4.5%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        3.8%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.7%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        5.4%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        1.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        0.6%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 EP092025 250808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.