Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  13.3  13.7  15.8  18.3  16.5  14.9  19.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  18.0  13.0   9.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.5  81.2  72.7  68.0  62.2  55.4  39.7  42.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  84.0  87.0  31.0 -18.0   9.0  15.0  -3.0  N  N  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.6%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        8.3%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.5%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        3.8%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.0%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        6.1%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        2.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        0.6%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.96

 EP092025 250808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.