Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    110.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  18.2  17.6  18.0  18.1  18.4  19.5  21.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  13.0  10.0   8.0   7.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.5  78.0  72.7  69.3  64.6  45.5  38.8  35.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  81.0   1.0 -28.0  19.0  13.0  13.0 -10.0  N  N  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        4.3%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       10.4%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        6.4%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        5.7%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        4.4%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        9.3%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        3.7%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        0.9%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.94

 EP092025 250808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    110.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.