Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092025 250809 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 111.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.9 18.6 20.5 16.9 17.2 16.9 18.7 18.7 F N N F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 11.0 8.0 7.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.0 74.4 69.3 69.3 51.7 42.0 37.7 29.1 N U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 86.0 8.0 -28.0 1.0 -20.0 16.0 19.0 0.0 F U VU U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 72.0 71.0 68.0 65.0 62.0 61.0 57.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -2.0 -4.0 -3.0 1.0 0.0 F F F N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.7% 1.4% 2.0% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 3.0% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 1.4% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 2.3% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.72 EP092025 250809 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 111.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.