Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  20.6  17.3  22.0  20.9  20.3  19.5  17.4  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  10.0   6.0   6.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.0  79.4  74.3  59.4  51.7  43.8  35.0  32.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   9.0  -4.0 -12.0 -48.0   4.0  16.0   4.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -7.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 EP092025 250809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.