Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092025 250809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  18.3  20.7  20.5  17.7  18.8  18.9  18.3  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   7.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.0  68.0  63.6  59.4  44.8  36.8  34.1  31.6  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0   1.0 -26.0  20.0 -13.0 -12.0  -4.0  -3.0 VU  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  60.0  60.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -7.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.00

 EP092025 250809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.