Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092025 250810 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 113.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.2 20.2 21.5 18.8 16.8 19.1 17.7 17.7 N N N N F N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 68.6 64.4 53.2 49.8 42.8 40.9 36.6 36.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 10.0 -40.0 -21.0 4.0 -1.0 -4.0 -4.0 U U VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 67.0 65.0 61.0 59.0 53.0 54.0 54.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 -4.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 F N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.18 EP092025 250810 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 113.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.